Presidential election outcome: Tinubu, Obi lead as betting platform users stake money

Ahead of the 2027 general election, users of Polymarket, a decentralised global prediction platform, have started staking money on the candidate likely to win Nigeria’s presidential race.

Reported checks on the platform’s portal on Monday show that President Bola Tinubu is currently leading the predictions.

Tinubu holds a significant lead with a 68 percent probability rating, recording over $14,823 volume of trade.

He is followed by Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), who occupies the second position with 25 percent, representing $5,937 volume of trade.

Tinubu clinched the All-Progressives Congress (APC) presidential ticket for the 2027 election last month after polling 10,999,162 votes to defeat his sole challenger, Stanley Osifo, who received 16,503 votes.

Obi was declared the NDC presidential candidate unopposed. Rotimi Amaechi, former minister of transportation, is placed third with 1.5 percent and $2,748 volume of trade.

The former governor of Rivers lost the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential ticket to former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.

Also, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, running mate to Obi, stands at less than 1 percent, with $2,265 volume of trade.

Omoyele Sowore, presidential candidate of the African Action Congress (AAC), has recorded less than 1 percent of the bet on the poll and $2,926 volume of trade.

The platform utilises a dynamic graph that tracks the fluctuating fortunes of the political actors as users trade their shares based on changing political narratives in the country.