Productivity Led Growth Will Lift 140 Million Nigerians Out Of Poverty—CFG Advisory

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BY BONNY AMADI

The CFG Advisory 2026 Outlook has projected that Nigeria’s GDP growth would be upbeat by +5 percent, with single digit official inflation, a 20% MPR, and the naira trading between N1,400–N1,500 per US dollar.

The CFG Advisory expressed optimism that transforming policy gains into productivity led growth at 8-10%, would lift over 140 million Nigerians out of multi-dimensional poverty, thereby improving livelihoods.

The 2026 economic outlook also made a projection that the growth rate expected to unveil under a single-digit official inflation rate, becomes critical as the citizens look towards the gains of various fiscal and monetary policy initiatives to a sound and sustainable productivity led growth, resulting to better living standards, higher employment level driven by industrialisation, low cost of living, high standard of living and higher income per capita for the people.

“Approaching the third year of difficult reforms, the urgency of now is clear: the economy is at a point of inflection, and government must implement policies that convert reform gains into productivity-led growth at 8-10%, capable of improving livelihoods and lifting over 140 million Nigerians out of multidimensional poverty.

Tilewa Adebajo, CEO, The CFG Advisory, Lagos. In his 2026 projections titled “Nigeria’s fiscal environment in an era of monetary policy tightening,” said that three years into reforms, 2026 would stand out to define how government policies benefit the citizenry.

He stressed that the urgency of now is clear: the economy is at a point of inflection, and government must implement policies that convert reform gains into productivity-led growth at 8-10%, capable of improving livelihoods and lifting over 140 million Nigerians out of multidimensional poverty

The document expressed optimism that gains recorded via the federal government fiscal and monetary policies would further enhance the citizens wellbeing in the prevailing year, however pointed that fiscal discipline remains the clear and present danger.

CFG Advisory in noting the clogs on the wheel of enhancing productivity noted that A three-year cumulative budget deficit exceeding N50 trillion, persistent inability to fund capital budgets, and a 2026 fiscal deficit of N23.85 trillion underscore this challenge. Most alarming, 2026 Budget debt service obligations of N15.2 trillion exceeding the combined N14.97 trillion allocation for Defense, Security, Education, and Health Budgets, raises a red flag demanding urgent attention.