BY KAYODE ADEBIYI
The long-simmering hostility between Israel and Iran has erupted into overt military confrontation, putting the Middle East on a razor’s edge and sending shockwaves across the globe.
For the past week, the two regional powers have exchanged deadly blows, with each strike pushing the spectre of a wider regional war closer to reality.
What began as a shadow war of proxies and covert operations has escalated dramatically, with resultant destruction of lives and property.
On June 13, Israel launched a series of targeted airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure and nuclear facilities, claiming to have set back Tehran’s nuclear programme significantly and decapitated key military leadership.
As expected, Iran swiftly retaliated with barrages of missiles and drones, hitting Israeli cities and towns.
By the time the smoke of bombardments cleared, both parties had suffered significant casualties, with Iran’s Health Ministry stating more than 220 people had been killed, and Israel confirming more than 20 fatalities.
The audacious nature of Israel’s strikes, targeting nuclear sites like Natanz and Fordow, and even the headquarters of Iranian state TV, signifies a profound shift in the intensity of the conflict.
Raphael Cohen, an expert at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan think-tank, said Israel views Iran’s proxy attack as an existential threat.
“Israel believed it was almost out of time to stop an Iranian bomb and that the time was right for a preventative strike,” he said.
Highlighting Israel’s post-Oct. 7 assessment of threats against it, Cohen said the direct engagement, which had moved beyond proxy warfare, marked a new and perilous chapter.
Experts warn that, aside from the firing of missiles at each other, the kind of rhetoric coming from the leaders of both countries makes for “a dangerous dance.”
Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has defiantly condemned Israel, warning that “the Zionist regime has prepared a bitter and painful fate for itself.”
Equally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been resolute, stating that Israel’s offensive aims to thwart “existential threats” posed by Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes.
He claimed that Israel was eliminating Iran’s security leadership “one after the other.”
As the international community struggles to de-escalate the crisis, leaders of the G7 nations, meeting in Canada, issued a joint statement urging “de-escalation” while reaffirming Israel’s right to self-defence.
“We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” the statement read, reflecting a shared concern over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
However, Arab leaders have largely reacted to the escalating Israel-Iran crisis with a mix of condemnation for Israel’s actions and urgent calls for de-escalation.
They, therefore, emphasise diplomatic solutions and respect for state sovereignty.
On its part, the Federal Government of Nigeria condemned Israel’s pre-emptive strike on Iran and has called for an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Like many other African countries, it urged both parties to exercise utmost restraint, emphasising that “military action is not a substitute for negotiation”.
The government also reaffirmed Nigeria’s readiness to support international de-escalation efforts.
However, experts say, while there is a shared desire to prevent a wider regional conflict, the tonnes of responses to the crisis reflect relationships with both Israel and Iran.
They call for a unified approach to de-escalating the crisis, which, for now, remains elusive.
President Donald Trump, while expressing the U.S.’s strong support for Israel, further stoked fears by indicating prior knowledge of Israel’s strikes and urged Tehran residents to evacuate.
“To suggest that a city of 10 million residents should be evacuated is reckless and irresponsible, to say the least.
“It does not do any peace plan any good for the president of the U.S. to be the one escalating the crisis,” an analyst said.
However, European countries have shown a greater emphasis on diplomatic solutions.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while affirming Israel’s right to self-defence, stressed that, “Escalation serves no one in the region.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen echoed Starmer’s sentiment, calling the situation “deeply alarming” and urging all parties to exercise restraint.
Just as countries and leaders are divided on the crisis, experts on the Middle East crisis are also divided on the immediate future.
Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, believes Israel’s strike was “highly provocative and strategically timed”.
She said that the strike aims to disrupt Iran’s operational leadership and damage its nuclear programme, but risks triggering broader regional escalation.
On the other hand, some analysts, such as those from the Atlantic Council, suggest Israel’s military and intelligence superiority has “overwhelmed and severely weakened” the Iranian regime.
Analysts, however, warn that the economic implications of the crisis are already being felt, irrespective of whose side one takes.
They say that oil prices have jumped, reflecting market jitters over potential disruptions to energy supplies, particularly if the conflict extends to the Strait of Hormuz.
Perhaps the most significant concern revolves around Iran’s nuclear programme.
While Israel claims to have significantly set back Iran’s progress, experts like Julia Masterson from RAND warn that these strikes could unexpectedly incentivise Iran to “double down on achieving a nuclear weapons capability”.
Raising concerns about the safety and security of nuclear sites, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned that nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances.
As the conflict continues, with neither side showing signs of backing down, the world watches with bated breath.
Sir Richard Dalton, former British ambassador to Iran, said calls for restraint from global leaders, though urgent, appear to be struggling against the deeply entrenched hostilities and strategic imperatives.
He expressed doubt about whether de-escalation can find a foothold before the regional conflict ignites a fire that engulfs the entire Middle East.
Analysts call on the international community to come together and find an immediate diplomatic solution to the crisis.
They warn that an escalation could have unpredictable and devastating global consequences.
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