As Price Pressures Persist Sticky Inflation Intensify

• Nigeria Logs 15.69% in April

Nigeria’s inflationary environment showed a mixed but generally improving picture in April 2026, according to the latest CPI report.

This was even as experts have projected that headline inflation is likely to rise further to 16.02% in May 2026.

Meanwhile Headline inflation edged higher to 15.69% year-on-year from 15.38% in March, marking a second consecutive monthly increase and signalling a brief pause in the earlier disinflation trend that had lasted nearly a year.

However, on a month-on-month basis, inflationary pressures eased significantly, with headline inflation slowing to 2.13%, suggesting that while prices are still rising, the pace of increase has moderated.

This moderation was largely driven by food prices, which remain the dominant force in the inflation basket. Food inflation declined sharply year-on-year to 16.06% from 24.68% in April 2025, while also easing month-on-month to 3.63%.

This reflects slower price increases in key staples such as grains, tubers, vegetables, and proteins. Core inflation followed a similar pattern, dropping markedly to 15.86% year-on-year and slowing to 1.03% month-on-month, indicating easing underlying price pressures outside food and energy.

At the sub-national level, inflation remained uneven across states, with higher pressures concentrated in northern states such as Sokoto, Bauchi, and Zamfara, while states like Edo, Borno, and Jigawa recorded relatively lower increases.

Food inflation also showed wide disparities, reflecting differences in supply conditions, seasonal harvest effects, and regional demand dynamics.

Overall, while inflation has ticked up slightly in recent months, broader trends suggest that underlying price pressures are softening, particularly in food and core components, even though regional disparities and short-term volatility remain significant.

Nigeria’s inflation outlook remains elevated in the near term as rising energy costs, transportation expenses, and persistent insecurity in food producing regions continue to pressure both food and core inflation.

Nonetheless, early signs of moderation are beginning to emerge, supported by slower month-on-month inflation readings, improved seasonal harvests, and easing consumer demand conditions.

Meanwhile, Cowry Research has projected that headline inflation will likely increase further to 16.02% in May 2026.

Attention now shifts to the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting after the CBN reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 26.5% at its last meeting in February 2026 while retaining the CRR at 45% for commercial banks and the Liquidity Ratio at 30%.